A completely avoidable recession

Sorry folks, this is the way the blog came out this time. Photos would not post, including a photo of Elon Musk with one his kids in the Oval office. Is he sabotaging my blog? He may not want his photo posted. I cannot post any photos here now. 

The other day, the Dow really plunged. It has recovered somewhat since. But this is not what Trump voters had in mind. Elon Musk may have made a good car and he contributed big-time to Trump's election, but now it's time for Trump to give him a medal and a plaque for his service and move him aside. Forget tariffs, forget immigration curbs, forget Elon Musk. Otherwise, the economy will continue to spiral downward. ​

I sent this message to my kids/grandkids: "Worried abut the incoming administration, I had wanted to take my RMD in January but a financial adviser at Bank of America had urged me to wait. I should have heeded my first instincts. Now I'm not sure what the best strategy is, as it could get even worse. I haven't actually decided what to do." 

 A good friend, a lifelong conservative, had this to say about Trump's tariffs. I don't agree with everything he says, but he makes some good points. 

"I agree with you about Trump's tariffs. They just make prices higher for everybody. But in my opinion, the fundamental problem is that decades of wild deficit spending by both parties has bankrupted the country. Other developed nations are in the same boat. So things look bleak, as politicians of both parties will probably try to ignore this basic reality by churning out vast new quantities of paper money, making our unpayable national debt even worse. By doing this they hope to somehow generate prosperity. But in reality all they are doing is further devaluating the currency, thereby accelerating the inflation rate. So the problem only gets worse. I am sorry to provide such a bleak outlook, but only a basic change of mindset by our politicians can redeem the situation. The longer we delay accepting reality, the harder it will be to restore the economy. Our country, and the world, can stagger on for a while, but it is the next generation which will really catch hell. Once again, I am sorry to sound so pessimistic, but this is our reality as I see it."   

What should I do now? Wait? Or simply cash in whatever I can before things get even worse? I'd wanted to take my retirement RMD in January before Trump took office again, but my financial adviser urged me to wait. I'm sorry that I listened to him. I'll be 87 this month and would like to leave a decent legacy for my many kids and grandkids. Will that even be possible? 

 Not only is the economy in disarray, but Trump has deliberately selected a vaccine skeptic as his Secretary of Human Services, John F. Kennedy Jr. 

 NY Times, Kennedy Links Measles Outbreak to Poor Diet and Health, Citing Fringe Theories 

 In my childhood, long before before vaccines were developed, our family stayed home when measles was spreading. But we got measles anyway, even though our health and diet were just fine. People knew back then that measles could be deadly, but never considered a good diet to be an antidote. After we children all fell ill, Mother put up warning signs in our windows and we went into quarantine. No one visited us. Then whooping cough assailed our household despite our many precautions and our mother had to hold our baby sister upside down by her feet to clear her airways. Parents did not become ill, having survived those illnesses earlier in life. Measles, mumps, and whooping cough--all were recognized as being highly contagious. Many children died. 

I suspect that RFK Jr.'s own children had all been vaccinated. 

In these pages, I've noted that halting immigration is another a counterproductive strategy for our country. According to a recent article in the Lancet, "If countries remain hostile to immigration while their birth rates fall, they will probably end up with a shrunken labor force that is unable to support an ageing population." 

 Elon Musk has certainly done his part on the population front by fathering 14 children with several different women. 

 As has been stated earlier, to maintain a steady population, a country needs an average of 2.1 births per woman. In the US, the rate is about 1.7, not sufficient for replacement. 

 Sweden offers generous child allowances and parental leave for families with children up to age 16 and sometimes even beyond. Yet Sweden's average birthrate is only 1.5 per woman. Other countries are doing even worse. The rate in Italy is 1.2, Spain 1.1, and 1.2 in Japan. South Korea at 0.8 faces a demographic catastrophe, but is now seeing a slight uptick as more couples are getting married. China's former one-child policy contributed to a big decline there, especially for girls, many adopted in the US and Europe, but is now seeing a small increase as well. 

Globally, fertility is 2.3, only slightly above replacement. Malthus had warned of a demographic catastrophe but now the opposite holds true. So you ladies in your childbearing years who might be reading this blog, you really must step up now and do your part. Speaking as a mother/grandmother/great-grandmother myself, I can attest that raising children is extremely challenging but infinitely rewarding. Without children, humankind will cease to exist.